Quotes Of The Day -- November Outcomes

 

"... Will big spending distort outcomes in November? Yes. But will it achieve all it hopes to achieve? Outcomes like we have seen in elections this year (and frankly began to see years ago) suggest that the combination of revulsion at the corruption and abuses and self-dealing of the billionaire class and corporate giants and special interests, generational change, the rise of new media technologies and the emergence of new leaders with a timely voter-centric message can begin to undo the damage of the Roberts court and mainstream elites in both parties.

"It is not a sure thing. It is up to us. But results like we are seeing and seem likely to see suggest it is possible…and that should motivate all of us to try to make a difference, pushing the big money out of American politics every way we can." -- David Rothkopf, in his "Need To Know" Substack, concluding his essay on "How Voters Can Overrule Citizens United" and the Epstein class oligarch / special interest group money.  But relief may be / is on the way (see below), if we get it done.

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"Today’s the day we’ve all been waiting for. If you’re reading this, that means we finished dotting our i’s and crossing our t’s and just published our shiny, state-of-the-art 2026 congressional election forecast over at FiftyPlusOne. 🎉

"As of 6:00 AM Eastern on August 3, 2026, we give the Democrats an 85% chance to win the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and a 55% chance to win control of the Senate (which we define as 51 seats or more, unless an independent wins in Nebraska, Montana, Idaho, or South Dakota — unlikely, but not impossible).

"Because our forecast simulates elections for both chambers in one unified model, we can also calculate the probabilities of either party controlling both chambers after Nov. Democrats win control of both the House and Senate in just over 50% of simulations, whereas Republicans prevail in less than 12%.

"You can read more about the initial results of our forecast in my model launch post over at 50+1. The forecast itself lives here, and here’s an extremely detailed methodology write-up of how it works..." (our emphasis) -- G. Elliott Morris, in his "Strength In Numbers" Substack, on how Democrats are "strongly favored" to win the House and slightly favored to win the Senate in the mid-terms.

QOTD -- "They Don't Like It"

 

G. Elliott Morris on the recent 2025 special elections:

"... [E]vidence suggests we should interpret the Republicans’ losses not just as a normal thermostatic reaction to the party in power, but a reflection of both profound anger, and regret, at the consequences of the 2024 election. I have seen some commentators argue that America is just 'getting what it voted for' and voters are reacting to that.

"On the contrary, the polls have long shown that voters did not vote for the current policy outputs of the Trump administration, and disapprove of Trump’s agenda on pretty much every account.

"The results of Tuesday’s elections affirm these polls. Americans are intensely angry at what Trump has done since taking office in January. As I wrote Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:

The best explanation for 2025 is that voters didn’t know what they were getting with Trump 2.0 last November, but now they do — and they don’t like it."

We need to wait a little longer to see if those outputs and that agenda are carried on, and if the intense anger continues, and grows.

Polls: Americans React To Trump's Abuse Of Power

 

Some heartening polls this morning, reflecting the Malignant Fascist's weakness and lack of support for his fascist takeover.  We are definitely the emergent majority.

From G. Elliott Morris:

Those orange-tinted states represent the majority of the population, economic power, and wealth of the country.

From Pew Research Center:

The Malignant Fascist and his minions are moving fast and ruthlessly to consolidate power.  They're following the ten steps Naomi Wolf identified in her prescient 2007 book The End of America that fascists have historically followed to gain power:

1. Invoke a terrifying internal and external enemy.
2. Create secret prisons where torture takes place.
3. Develop a thug caste or paramilitary force not answerable to citizens.
4. Set up an internal surveillance system.
5. Infiltrate and harass citizens' groups.
6. Engage in arbitrary detention and release.
7. Target key individuals.
8. Control the press.
9. Cast criticism as espionage and dissent as treason.
10. Subvert the rule of law.

But there are still majorities -- growing majorities -- that see where they're going and aren't going along for the ride.  That's another reason they''re moving fast, as both Morris and Paul Krugman have opined. That's why every day that their plans can be slowed down or stopped altogether is another day for American democracy to keep punching the fascists and, ultimately, win.

Polls: Americans Against Trump's Deportation Actions/ LA Crackdown

 

Data journalist G. Elliott Morris looked at the aggregation of polling on the protests in Los Angeles and how the Malignant Fascist is handling that and related immigration issues:

The takeaway: The Trump administration is underwater in 11 out of 12 poll questions related to immigration, deportations, and the LA protests this week. The only poll to come up with positive results for the administration is a YouGov/Economist survey asking whether people approve, broadly, of how Trump is "handling the issue of immigration." At +4, that represents a 3-point decline from the +7 reading in YouGov's poll last week.  [snip]

In our Strength In Numbers average of issue approval polls from many different firms, Trump's net approval on handling immigration has fallen from +5.1 to -1.3 over the last week. This represents the fastest decline in his rating since the dip after press coverage of Kilmar Abrego Garcia peaked in April.

Here are the polls.

(click on image to enlarge)

As we head into the "No Kings" protest day today, we need to take heart in the fact that a growing majority of America is with us in opposing the MF's fascist approach to immigration and deportations. In fact, as Morris points out, he's underwater on every key issue:

He's an increasingly desperate despot, and we need to keep standing up to him and his thugs.

Tweets Of The Day -- Sunny Forecast

With the caveat that none of this happens unless we work our asses off from now until November, and then get out the vote, here's something nice to head into the weekend with:

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The Economist's forecasting model for the US presidential election is now live! We think Joe Biden has around a 5-in-6 shot at winning the presidency.https://t.co/O6Lknvo6Kp

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 11, 2020

 

Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 based on history... It's quite possible he pulls it off, but it's bad.

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 11, 2020

Et tu, Rupert?!

Rupert Murdoch Predicts Trump Will ‘Crash And Burn’ In November Election https://t.co/3PjCcB16Qs via @TPM

— Bruce Bartlett (@BruceBartlett) June 11, 2020