U.S. To Pakistan: No "Broad Relationship" Anymore

 

As Pakistan's client Taliban regime was declaring it wouldn't cooperate with the U.S. in containing ISIS, a strong, long- overdue message was delivered to Islamabad:

A senior US official visiting Islamabad has made clear to Pakistan that the Biden administration has downgraded the bilateral relationship.

On the eve of her arrival, the deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, used a public event in Mumbai to lay out in blunt terms the new parameters of US-Pakistan relations, stressing there would be no equivalence with Washington’s deepening ties to India.

The Islamabad trip was for “a very specific and narrow purpose”, Sherman said, to talk about Afghanistan and the Taliban.

“We don’t see ourselves building a broad relationship with Pakistan, and we have no interest in returning to the days of hyphenated India-Pakistan,” she added. “That’s not where we are. That’s not where we’re going to be.”

Any strategic value the increasingly authoritarian Pakistan may have had has long since been overshadowed by the emergence of strong countervailing forces in the region, most notably through India (and by extension "The Quad").  At the same time, tolerance of the "double game" Pakistan has played in supporting the Taliban (and providing safe harbor for other destabilizing terrorist groups in the region), while claiming to be a partner in fighting global terror, has apparently come to an end.  Following high level meetings last month with Pakistan, the U.S. has decided that Pakistan intended to continue playing its "double game," to the detriment of U.S. interests in the region, thus the downgrade in the relationship.

Good.  It was past time to end the charades.

A Simmering Mess In Pakistan

From early in our blog, we've been watching events in Afghanistan and in neighboring nuclear-armed Pakistan with growing concern. The Bushit Assministration stood by and watched the government of Pervez Musharraf cut deals with Taliban-supporting tribes and virtually opt out of pursuing al Qaeda, preferring to focus on an Iraqi dictator that wasn't involved in the 9-11 attacks.

Now, there is a serious internal squabble between President Zardari and the leader of the opposition, Nawaz Sharif, largely over restrictions placed on the judiciary and the political activities of the opposition. Large protests have erupted across Pakistan, and the situation has the potential of spinning out of control. Not good for a country with nuclear weapons and a significant number of its population with anti-American views. For now, the Pakistani Army -- a Western-leaning institution -- is focused on arch rival India, and not on supressing al Qaeda and Talibanists seeking to install a fundamentalist regime. That may change in the weeks ahead.

Over There

The New York Times reports that more than 100 supply trucks headed for allied troops in Afghanistan were destroyed outside Peshawar, Pakistan yesterday by Taliban forces. On Monday, a Taliban force set fire to 50 vehicles headed for Afghanistan at a truck stop near Peshawar. Most of the supplies for U.S. and NATO troops are brought in through the port of Karachi, and travel through Pakistan to the Khyber Pass into Afghanistan.

Newsweek's Fareed Zakharia has a related article about the Pakistan military's looming choice between supporting action against Islamic terrorists and making Pakistan a pariah state, as new evidence links Pakistan's intelligence organization to the terrorists responsible for last month's deadly attacks in Mumbai.

"The Nexus of Terrorism and Nuclear Weapons"

That would be Pakistan, al Qaeda's main prize. Iraq is now "a rear guard action," according to Marine Corps General James Conway, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Pakistan has all the ingredients that were lacking in Iraq: nuclear weapons, an unstable government, and large frontier areas controlled by Islamic fundamentalists allied with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Preznit Dumbya's war was everything al Qaeda could ask for: a diversion so that they could rebuild their forces and bleed ours, and a recruitment poster throughout the Muslim world.

Today's deadly attacks in neighboring India on Mumbai's hotel and commercial district was likely carried out by forces allied to al Qaeda to provoke a military reaction by India toward Pakistan. Chaos is their ally; sadly, so was Dumbya.

Don't Look Now. . . .

We've long believed that the Pakistan border tribal region of Waziristan was the home base of al Qaeda, and that their numbers were growing largely due to the acquiescence of the Pakistani government. Now, the NY Times reports that yesterday Pakistani troops fired warning shots at U.S. helicopters patrolling the border. The helicopters returned warning shots and turned back into Afghanistan.

Not a reassuring picture, given the $1 billion in aid we provide to Pakistan each year. And unlike Iran and Iraq, Pakistan is a nuclear weapons state, which makes it even more attractive for al Qaeda subversion. But don't tell Sen. McBombbombbomb or Preznit Dumbya. Victory in Iraq! Bomb Iran! High five! Booyah!

The Central Front

For years, the Bush Assministration and St. John McBombbombbomb have declared Iraq to be the central front of the war on terror, despite the fact that al Qaeda in Iraq never represented more than 10 percent of the insurgency, according to the U.S. military. While we were distracted by Dumbya's Iraqi misadventure, al Qaeda and its allies have been building up their forces in the northwestern frontier of Pakistan and in Afghanistan, where today the Taliban allies of al Qaeda control much of the country and threaten the Karzai government. Here's a link to one of our posts in February 2007 about the rise of al Qaeda.

Today's bombing of the Islamabad Marriott hotel is a stark reminder that the "central front" was always where al Qaeda's command structure lived - - in those same mountains straddling the Afghan/Pakistan frontier. The years wasted in Dumbya's settling of Bush family scores with Saddam Hussein, and his Assministration's deceptions leading up to the Iraq war, represent a huge betrayal in the fight against the 9/11 attackers. We've lost precious time and resources, and we're getting to the point of no return in that fight.

(photo: Agence France Presse)

The Neglected Enemy In Afghanistan

For the second month in a row, U.S. and allied troop deaths in Afghanistan have surpassed those in Iraq. The recent Pentagon report on the situation in Afghanistan calls the situation in much of the country "fragile" and indicates that the Taliban has become a "resilient insurgency." The Taliban were the hosts and protectors of the al Qaeda leadership and core fighters, from whose ranks came the terrorists that attacked us on 9/11.

You won't be hearing McSame or Joe Lieberliar or wingnut cheerleaders for the Iraq war mention this, because to point to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan would be to remind the public that the people who attacked us are still at large, and are gaining strength in both Afghanistan and nuclear-armed Pakistan. Meanwhile, our fighting forces are committed to keeping Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites from each others' throats.

Quote of the Week

"Gates is drinking...the Kool-Aid this administration has for the last six years. My info suggests that [the Pakistanis] are not doing very well in Swat." -- Anonymous Pentagon specialist in counter-terrorism efforts on the Afghan-Pakistani border, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job. (He was referring to Defense Secretary Robert Gates' assessment that the Pakistani army had had "some success" fighting "al-Qaeda" in the province of Swat. The specialist also said the fighters involved were not al-Qaeda, but a local Islamist extremist group.)

Are They Nuts?

Just a rhetorical question; of course they are. Neocons Michael O'Hanlon and Fred Kagan have suggested that the U.S. should take military action against Pakistan to secure their nuclear weapons. Pakistan has a population of 160 million, roughly five times that of Iraq. It wouldn't be pretty.

Kagan was the "intellectual architect" of the surge in Iraq, and has advocated military strikes against Iran and Syria. O'Hanlon visited Iraq for a short period earlier in the year, and came back repeating talking points provided by the Assministration. Both are "experts" who have never served in the military.

At this rate, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey might expect calls from this duo for an attack on them shortly.

"The Most Dangerous Nation: Pakistan"

That's right. Not Iran, not Syria, not North Korea. Pakistan.

This week's Newsweek magazine has a thorough write up on the "perfect storm" that characterizes Pakistan: unstable government, significant al Qaeda presence, nuclear weapons. A good and sobering read.

What is the Bush Assministration doing about the threat? Planning for a strike on Iran, and running out the clock on their miserable presidency.

Pakistan, Again

This is getting to be a daily alert, but today's NY Times article describing Pakistan's precarious state should scare the bejesus out of us all. Pakistan has all the ingredients of disaster: political unrest, nuclear weapons, key areas dominated by al Qaeda and Taliban supporters, growing hostility of the people to U.S. policies in the Mideast. Meanwhile, the Bush Assministration is bogged down chasing a relative handful of "al Qaeda" in Iraq, while beating the drums of war against . . . .Iran.

Figures.

Dangerous Situation in Pakistan

When the Bush Assministration's attention shifted from the 9/11 terrorists in Afghanistan to invading Iraq in order to settle a Bush family grudge while grabbing for more oil, the original attackers have been able to use the distraction to mobilize, recruit and rebuild their network in the mountains of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Now, Pakistan is teetering on the verge of chaos, with the terrorist bombing attempt on former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's life. As it was, the attempt killed over 130 of her supporters. As we pointed out over the past year, Pakistan is the sole Muslim country with nuclear weapons, and al-Qaeda is gaining strength there, as the Taliban is gaining strength in Afghanistan. Dumbya's obsession with Saddam Hussein is coming back to haunt us all.

Morning Cup of Irony

Headlines of seperate stories on page A10 of this morning's Washington Post (no link):

Iran Frees U.S. Scholar From Prison

And right below it:

Al-Qaeda Suspect Released by Pakistan

Knowing Your Enemy, Part 1

The news that the apparent truce is off between the Pakistani government and the tribal areas of Waziristan that shelter Taliban and al Qaeda fighters is ominous. Clearly, they see the Musharraf government as weak and temporary. The Preznit's foolish decision to pull troops out of Afghanistan to attack Iraq before the Taliban and al Qaeda were completely defeated is coming back to haunt them. And, unlike Iraq or Iran, Pakistan is armed with nuclear weapons, with dubious controls over them.

Given this Assministration's record, with al Qaeda strengthening in the Afghan-Pakistani frontier, we'll be launching a military attack on. . . . .Iran. Or Syria. Or Lebanon.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan . . .

It may not be time for deep concern yet, but things in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan are not looking good. From the Pakistani government's decision last year to pull out of the Northwest frontier which is overrun with Taliban and al Qaeda, to recent demonstrations against Musharraf's regime, Pakistan should be on the Preznit's radar by now. If he thinks Iran poses a problem, consider that Pakistan is turning more Islamist by the day - - and they have nukes.