Trump's Attack On Our Healthcare Intensifies

This morning, millions of Americans woke up to the reality that their health insurance premiums are about to surge, thanks to the malevolent and vindictive Malignant Fascist, who has sought to destroy the Affordable Care Act since his first ignominious term in office. From the Associated Press:

"Enhanced tax credits that have helped reduce the cost of health insurance for the vast majority of Affordable Care Act enrollees expired overnight, cementing higher health costs for millions of Americans at the start of the new year.

Democrats forced a 43-day government shutdown over the issue. Moderate Republicans called for a solution to save their 2026 political aspirations. President Donald Trump floated a way out, only to back off after conservative backlash.

In the end, no one’s efforts were enough to save the subsidies before their expiration date. A House vote expected in January could offer another chance, but success is far from guaranteed.

The change affects a diverse cross-section of Americans who don’t get their health insurance from an employer and don’t qualify for Medicaid or Medicare — a group that includes many self-employed workers, small business owners, farmers and ranchers.

It comes at the start of a high-stakes midterm election year, with affordability — including the cost of health care — topping the list of voters’ concerns." (our emphasis)

With increasing numbers of Americans struggling to make ends meet in the MF's regressive economy that favors the ultra wealthy, this latest attack on them will push many out of the insurance market altogether:

"On average, the more than 20 million subsidized enrollees in the Affordable Care Act program are seeing their premium costs rise by 114% in 2026, according to an analysis by the health care research nonprofit KFF.

Those surging prices come alongside an overall increase in health costs in the U.S., which are further driving up out-of-pocket costs in many plans."

The MF's hatred and envy of President Obama is behind his obsession with destroying Obama's signature achievement, and his failure to come up with a replacement plan for years demonstrates that it's all about tarnishing Obama's record, even if it means suffering for tens of millions of Americans.  The rotted out MAGA Republican cult could stand up for their constituents, but won't.

(photo: He had a "concept of a plan" in his warped mind)

 

Behind Trump's Threat To Repeal "Obamacare"

The Malignant Loser has always been envious of and hateful toward former President Obama. From his days of promoting the odious birther claims against Obama, to his relentless campaign to terminate Obama's signature domestic policy achievement, the Affordable Care Act or "Obamacare", the Malignant Loser has a vengeful attitude toward his predecessor. Some have even suggested that Obama's ridicule of the Malignant Loser at the 2011 White House Correspondents Dinner prompted him to run for President in 2016. His innate racism has been on display going back decades when he was a self-promoting real estate hustler in New York City, as evidenced in the Central Park Five injustice, and his company's redlining of minority renters in New York City during the 1970s.  

Dean Obeidallah has an opinion piece on CNN.com that explores the reasons behind the Malignant Loser's insistent attempts to destroy his predecessor's achievement, which he tried and failed to do in his four miserable years in the Oval Office:

"First, he believes going after the signature achievement of President Obama plays well with his base. The ACA has the support of nearly 60% of Americans, so it might seem an unlikely target of political attack — except for the fact that Obama was extremely unpopular with the GOP base. [snip]

Second, Trump has long appeared obsessed with attacking — and if at all possible undoing — Obama’s legacy.

When Obama left office in January 2017, a CNN poll showed him with a 60% approval rating, landing him near the top of the list of presidential approval ratings upon leaving office. In contrast, Trump left office with a 34% approval rating — the lowest of his term. Those numbers must stick in the craw of a braggadocious man who has always seemed obsessed with being the biggest and the best. [snip]

But there’s another, deeply unsettling possible motive: A racial component may be at play in Trump’s attacks on the legacy of the first Black president.

Some pundits have long expressed the view that Trump often appears to be driven by racism and that a similar motivation may be part of the thinking of his MAGA followers. Trump understands his base better than any of us and — as a master of political divisiveness — he surely knows that attacking Obama will please his supporters."  (our emphasis)

Obeidallah's column is well worth reading, and looks at the Malignant Loser's history of racism and demagoguery in a fuller context. The fact that he doesn't have an alternative replacement for Obama's Affordable Care Act is the clearest sign that he never had anything, and, once again, this is all about his petty grievances and bigotry at the expense of millions of Americans needing affordable health care.

 

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

 

The good:

The Affordable Care Act, passed in 2010 by former President Barack Obama, has expanded health insurance coverage across the U.S. and significantly reduced racial and ethnic disparities in access to healthcare, according to a new report by the Commonwealth Fund.

"Since its passage in 2010, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has helped cut the U.S. uninsured rate nearly in half while significantly reducing racial and ethnic disparities in both insurance coverage and access to care — particularly in states that expanded their Medicaid programs," reads the report.

Data shows that prior to the 2013 implementation of the Medicaid expansion — a provision of the ACA that made more families eligible for Medicaid coverage — 40.2% of the Hispanic population, 24.4% of the Black population, and 14.5% of the White population were uninsured in America. However, by 2021, those numbers dropped significantly to 24.5%, 13.5%, and 8.2%, respectively.

With more than five million people gaining coverage between 2020 and 2022 over the course of the pandemic, the overall uninsured rate in the U.S. dropped to just 8%, a historic low, according to the report.

The report highlights specific ACA successes, including improved coverage rates for Black, Hispanic and White adults.

"The coverage gap between Black and White adults dropped from 9.9 to 5.3 percentage points, while the gap between Hispanic and White adults dropped from 25.7 to 16.3 points," according to the the study. 

Additionally, the report found that adult uninsured rates for Black, Hispanic, and White people all improved during the first two years of the pandemic across all states — whether they had expanded their Medicare coverage or not —  and that Black and Hispanic adults experienced larger gains in insurance coverage than their White counterparts between from 2019 to 2021.  (our emphasis)

Democratic governance makes life better for all Americans.  Pass it on.

The bad:

Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Monday for a three-day visit that shows off Beijing’s new swagger in world diplomatic affairs and offers a welcome political lift for Russian President Vladimir Putin just days after an international arrest warrant was issued for him on war crimes charges related to the war in Ukraine.

China and Russia have described Xi’s trip as an opportunity to further deepen their “no-limits friendship.” China looks to Russia as a source of oil and gas for its energy-hungry economy, and as a partner in standing up to what both see as U.S. domination of global affairs. The two countries also have held joint military drills.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that over dinner on Monday, Putin and Xi will touch on issues related to Ukraine, adding that Russia’s president will likely offer a “detailed explanation” of Moscow’s view on the current situation.

Broader talks involving officials from both countries on a range of subjects are scheduled for Tuesday, according to Peskov.

For Putin, Xi’s presence at the Kremlin is a prestige visit and a diplomatic triumph, allowing him to tell Western leaders allied with Ukraine that their efforts to isolate him have fallen short...

For Xi to further taint an already tainted China by associating with wanted war criminal Putin is not terribly surprising.  Genocidal regimes stick together.  Autocrats stick together, particularly those with common enemies.  Fuck 'em.

The ugly:

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg sought to reassure his staff in an internal message Saturday that intimidation or threats against them would not be tolerated. The communication comes as his office moves forward in its investigation into former President Donald Trump, who said that he believes he will be arrested on Tuesday and put out a call for his supporters to protest.

"Please know that your safety is our top priority," Bragg said in a memo to office staff obtained by NBC News from a senior official at the Manhattan DA’s office.

He added, "We do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York."

The letter, which was first reported by Politico, did not mention Trump by name, and referred only to "an ongoing investigation by this office."

Trump is under investigation by Bragg's office in connection with a hush money payment made to adult video performer Stormy Daniels during his first campaign for president...

No one was shocked that the Malignant Loser would look to his MAGA moron supporters to protect him should he be indicted and arrested tomorrow.  Following his leader Marjorie "Traitor" Greene's lead, spineless Squeaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has now urged the Malignant Loser's cult not to protest his imminent arrest, likely fearful it could turn into Coup 2.0, diluting the pervasive Republican propaganda that January 6 was a normal tourist event marred by limited acts of naughtiness.

Lying Is A Preexisting Condition For Republicans

Rachel Maddow calls out the bald- faced, widespread lying by Republican candidates who are trying to hide their past and present opposition to coverage of preexisting conditions in Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act). From Republican Governors to Attorneys General to Senators to Congressmen, Maddow exposes the lying hypocrites one by one:

McConnell Wants Another Crack At Repealing Obamacare

On the heels of setting the stage for cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security to balance out Republican wealthfare tax cuts, Republican turtle/ human hybrid Sen. Mitch "Missy" McConnell (R- Dystopia) has another wish he'd like fulfilled:

Republicans could make another run at repealing the Affordable Care Act if they retain control of Congress next year, the Senate’s GOP leader said on Wednesday. 

The statement, which Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) made in an interview with Reuters, came in response to a question about what the GOP had accomplished since President Donald Trump took office ― and what business McConnell felt was unfinished. 

He called the failure to repeal the law known as Obamacare his singular disappointment but promised that Republicans haven’t given up. “If we had the votes to completely start over, we’d do it,” McConnell said. “But that depends on what happens in a couple weeks. ... We’re not satisfied with the way Obamacare is working.”

He may not be satisfied, but the majority of Americans don't want Obamacare repealed, and it's become a strong issue for Democrats in the mid- terms, with numerous ads slamming Republicans for sabotaging Obamacare and wanting to eliminate protections for pre- existing conditions.  McConnell's aim here is unclear, though his interest is to hold the Senate at all costs.  Perhaps this plays well in some deep red states with close Senate elections, but it's hard to imagine anywhere where this is a winning position right now.  But, when you've got nothing...

Keep digging that hole, Missy!

(Photo:  What a vicious sociopath looks like)

Poll: Strong Support For Saving Obamacare, Dodging TrumpCare

The Kaiser Family Foundation has a new poll out that Republicans in Congress would do well to heed:

-- The August Kaiser Health Tracking Poll finds that the majority of the public (60 percent) say it is a “good thing” that the Senate did not pass the bill that would have repealed and replaced the ACA. Since then, President Trump has suggested Congress not take on other issues, like tax reform, until it passes a replacement plan for the ACA, but six in ten Americans (62 percent) disagree with this approach, while one-third (34 percent) agree with it. 

--A majority of the public (57 percent) want to see Republicans in Congress work with Democrats to make improvements to the 2010 health care law, while smaller shares say they want to see Republicans in Congress continue working on their own plan to repeal and replace the ACA (21 percent) or move on from health care to work on other priorities (21 percent). However, about half of Republicans and Trump supporters would like to see Republicans in Congress keep working on a plan to repeal the ACA. 

--A large share of Americans (78 percent) think President Trump and his administration should do what they can to make the current health care law work while few (17 percent) say they should do what they can to make the law fail so they can replace it later. About half of Republicans and supporters of President Trump say the Trump administration should do what they can to make the law work (52 percent and 51 percent, respectively) while about four in ten say they should do what they can to make the law fail (40 percent and 39 percent, respectively). Moving forward, a majority of the public (60 percent) says President Trump and Republicans in Congress are responsible for any problems with the ACA.  (our emphasis)

Deranged narcissist Donald "Rump" Trump will find it difficult, if not impossible, to give up his Ahab- like obsession with harpooning the signature legislation of President Obama. Certainly his core of mouth- breathing knuckle- draggers will go over the cliff with him on this or most other issues. Even so, there have been signs that core voters are becoming fewer and less strong in their support. Likewise, with Rump's deranged fixations and his sagging poll numbers, there's reporting indicating that Republican officeholders are less concerned about ignoring him, especially since Rump has shown zero loyalty to Republicans in Congress =cough= Missy McConnell =cough= Dean Heller =cough= Lisa Murkowski =cough. The belief is, fellow deranged mouth- breathers in the House Freedom Caucus aside, Republicans are going to want to proceed on their own shitty agenda, on their timeline, regardless of what Rump has to say. This poll gives more evidence that following Rump's self- interested demands on Obamacare would further seriously impede that agenda.

Poll: Two-Thirds Want To Keep And Fix Obamacare

As dimwitted lickspittles of unfit narcissist Donald "Rump" Trump were out this weekend claiming his unhinged refusal to give up trying to dismantle President Obama's signal achievement was "popular" and "reflected the mood of the American people," there was this recent Reuters/ Ipsos poll: 

A majority of Americans are ready to move on from healthcare reform at this point after the U.S. Senate's effort to dismantle Obamacare failed on Friday, according to an exclusive Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Saturday. 

Nearly two-thirds of the country wants to either keep or modify the Affordable Care Act, popularly known as Obamacare, and a majority of Americans want Congress to turn its attention to other priorities, the survey found.

The July 28-29 poll of more than 1,130 Americans, conducted after the Republican-led effort collapsed in the Senate, found that 64 percent said they wanted to keep Obamacare, either "entirely as is" or after fixing "problem areas." That is up from 54 percent in January. (our emphasis)

So just who are Rump and his lickspittles thinking of as on board with their plan to take the American health insurance industry over the cliff?

Why, these "real American" morons, of course:

Among Republicans, three-fourths said they would like their party's leaders to try to repeal and replace Obamacare at some point, though most listed other issues that they would give a higher priority right now.

This includes subsets of Rump voters who (a) didn't think Rump would deport their spouse until he did, (b) thought Rump would get the Messicans to "build the wall!", (c) thought Rump would mature and "normalize" once in office, (d) thought Rump would bring back millions of manufacturing jobs that are gone for good - including coal mining jobs, and (e) thought Rump would hold true to another campaign promise, to be "the best president" for LGBTQ people.

All of which brings us back to health care, and this piece by Andy Borowitz, with the headline:

Trump Supporters Furious That They Still Have Health Care

Well maybe, if he has his way, Rump and the Republicans can still come through for them after all.  Sad!

Aetna's Obamacare Extortion

Jonathan Cohn has the big story today on Aetna's decision to scale back its participation in Obamacare.  It seems these bastards were trying to (what's the word?)... extort the Administration to approve its merger with Humana:

The big health care news this week came from Aetna, which announced on Monday it was dramatically scaling back participation in the Affordable Care Act ― thereby reducing insurer competition and forcing customers scattered across 11 states to find different sources of coverage next year. 

Aetna officials said the pullout was necessary because of Obamacare’s problems ― specifically, deep losses the insurer was incurring in the law’s health insurance exchanges. 

But the move also was directly related to a Department of Justice decision to block the insurer’s potentially lucrative merger with Humana, according to a letter from Aetna’s CEO obtained by The Huffington Post. [snip] 

... [J]ust last month, in a letter to the Department of Justice, Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini said the two issues were closely linked. In fact, he made a clear threat: If President Barack Obama’s administration refused to allow the merger to proceed, he wrote, Aetna would be in worse financial position and would have to withdraw from most of its Obamacare markets, and quite likely all of them.  (our emphasis)

If you believe Aetna was losing money, Richard Mayhew at Balloon Juice has something you should take a look at.

No, this would appear to be extortion, and the bastards had the brass to put it in writing.  Now, that's something the Department of Justice should add to the Aetna/ Humana merger file for referral to the criminal division.

Health Insurance Coverage Over 90 Percent For First Time

Thanks a lot (again), Obama:

Last year was the first year that more than 90 percent of Americans had health insurance, new federal data shows.

On Tuesday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released its annual look at health insurance coverage in the United States. It shows that coverage rates have gone up this decade, particularly after Obamacare's health insurance expansion took effect.

In 2015, 9.1 percent of people lacked health insurance — a 2.4 percentage point decrease from 2014. That works out to 7.4 million fewer people lacking coverage.

Don't worry, though.  President Trump will repeal Obamacare and Make America Great Again!

Happy Birthday Obamacare!

Today marks the 6th birthday of Obamacare (the signing of the Affordable Care Act).  Dan Diamond shows us in a few charts what that's meant (click on images to enlarge):




Please feel free to refer to these charts the next time you hear a lying Republican say that Obamacare is a disastrous failure and job-killer, and how much they want to repeal it.

Oh, we almost forgot:  thanks a lot, Obama!

BONUS:  Here's more about Obamacare to be happy about.

Good News Is No News - Obamacare Edition

For shits and giggles, let's scan a sample of the headlines (no links) in the A section of today's once great Washington Post Bezos Bugle -- part of the "librul" media! -- for what their national editor sees as "newsworthy:"

A1 - "Drones ready to deliver; people are the problem"

A3 - "1871 whaling wrecks found off Alaska"
      - "Starting this year, FBI will track animal abuse"

A4 - "Health-care repeal advances to a certain veto"

[Various corset ads later...]

A11 - "Obamacare does not appear to be hurting labor market"

Page A 11 !  Is it any wonder most Americans are clueless about the positive impacts of the Affordable Care Act  ("Obamacare")?  Do you think most readers get past page 3 or 4?  What the vast majority of readers of this "librul" newspaper probably missed was yet another puncturing of one of the favorite and most repeated lies Republicans tell about Obamacare:  "It's a job killer!"  Three studies have once again concluded that fact- free Republican scare mongering about Obamacare being a drag on the economy was just that -- fact-free Republican scare mongering. Here's what most Americans will never hear about, from the somewhat expanded on- line version (our emphasis):

One study, published Tuesday in the journal Health Affairs, focuses on a widely criticized provision of the law that requires employers with at least 100 full-time workers to offer health insurance as of the beginning of 2015. (This year, that requirement is being extended to firms with more than 50 employees.) Critics worried that the provision would deter small businesses from expanding and would encourage them to cut their workers' hours. But this study is the latest in a series to conclude that Obamacare did not, in fact, widely result in more firms asking employees to work part time.

The authors examined Census data and found no increase in the likelihood of working part time, except for a 0.18 percentage point increase in the likelihood of working 25 to 29 hours per week between 2013 and 2014 — a trend that the authors say predated the ACA.  [snip]

A second Health Affairs study and a working paper issued Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research both examined whether employees have chosen to work less in order to qualify for Medicaid, which became available to a larger group of people under health reform.

The new research on the effects of the Medicaid expansion does not suggest that people are looking to limit their earnings. On the contrary, some might even be looking to work more.

"In general, there's been no evidence that the ACA has done anything significant to employment," said Robert Kaestner, an economist at the University of Illinois at Chicago and one of the authors of the working paper, using the abbreviation for the Affordable Care Act. "We don't have to worry too much."  [snip]

Obamacare's detractors had said that with access to Medicaid, some people earning between the poverty level and 138 percent of that level would quit working. [Ed. note: "Non-white moochers!" in Republican dog whistle.] They might have been working in jobs that did not pay well but offered health insurance sponsored by the employer. With insurance provided by Uncle Sam, people in that category might have decided going to work wasn't worth it.  [snip]

In fact, according to the calculations by Kaestner's group, the labor market actually looked a little bit stronger in the states that expanded Medicaid.

Is this the media we deserve?  For now, it's certainly the one we're stuck with.

Tweet Of The Day - Uninsured Rate Drops To New Historic Low

It's all Obama's fault!

America’s uninsured rate was already historically low. It just fell even further. https://t.co/6d9tpPYCLj pic.twitter.com/8nokRUwb9y

— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) November 5, 2015

Most Doubt Ability Of Supreme Court To Rule Fairly On Obamacare Lawsuit

The Supreme Court is set to issue its decision in June in the King v Burwell case, regarding subsidies in state-run Obamacare exchanges.  The suit depends on a willful misinterpretation of the law brought about by a drafting glitch that normally would be left to the discretion of the executive branch administering it.  But, with partisan hacks embedded throughout the judiciary, nothing is "normal" any more.  The public, however, is on to them (via Yahoo News):

(AP) — Many people in the United States doubt that the Supreme Court can rule fairly in the latest litigation jeopardizing President Barack Obama's health care law.

The Associated Press-GfK poll finds only 1 person in 10 is highly confident that the justices will rely on objective interpretations of the law rather than their personal opinions. Nearly half, 48 percent, are not confident of the court's impartiality.

"That lawsuit should have never made it this far," said Hal Lewis, a retiree from Scranton, Pennsylvania.  (our emphasis)

Mr. Lewis, by his observation, shows more clarity and ethical propriety than the minimum 4 Supreme Court justices that agreed to listen to this bogus suit in the first place.

Great job, "Justice" Roberts! 

General Stupidity, Meet Major Irony

Looks like a dose of reality has hit "constitutional sheriff" and  Oathkeeper Richard Mack and his wife:

Former Arizona county sheriff Richard Mack, a fierce opponent of Obamacare and a leader in the "constitutional sheriff" movement, is struggling to pay his medical bills after he and his wife each faced serious illnesses. The former sheriff and his wife do not have health insurance and started a GoFundMe campaign to solicit donations from family and friends to cover the costs of their medical care. 

"Because they are self-employed, they have no medical insurance and are in desperate need of our assistance," reads a note on Mack's personal website. (our emphasis)

So, he'd rather he and his wife go begging than submit to the gummint tyranny of Obamacare! Because Patriot! Also Freedumb!

Will the next right-wing replacement plan for Obamacare be, should the Republicans on the Supreme Court cavalierly gut it, for all the millions of people losing subsidies to start GoFundMe campaigns?

(Photo:  Sheriff Richard Mack, not the brightest star in law enforcement.)

The Latest Republican Flim-Flam On Obamacare "Replacement"

(click on image to enlarge)

(Tom Toles, once great Washington Post Bezos Bugle)

Frequent blind squirrel Dana Milbank on the not-new Republican/ New Confederate/ Stupid Party's "Obamacare Replacement Plan" (a.k.a., "Cover For The Right-Wing Supreme Court To Destroy Obamacare"):

On Thursday, the Senate Finance Committee put out a news release announcing “Burr, Hatch, Upton Unveil Obamacare Replacement Plan.” The three men, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (Utah), House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (Mich.) and Sen. Richard Burr (N.C.), are well-regarded legislators, and the press went along with this “news.”  [snip] 

But Caroline Behringer, the eagle-eyed press secretary for Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee, was suspicious that this “urgent” and “explosive” new proposal had just been “devised.” So she did some sleuthing and discovered that the Republicans had lifted the thing — right down to quotes in the news release — from the rollout of the same proposal a year earlier. 

Of course, "the press went along with this 'news.'"  In some cases, it may have been an unteachable willingness to believe Republicans are sincere about universal, affordable health care (=cough= The Hill =cough=), and in others it was just Republican media catapulting bullshit (=cough= The Examiner = Forbes =cough=).  Milbank helpfully has a side- by- side comparison of Republican press releases from a year ago and now that are virtually identical, which the intrepid and/or cynical press "missed."

In any event, as Milbank correctly observes,

This exercise in cut-and-paste legislation would seem to suggest that Republicans are not serious about their “new” proposal. Like last time, the plan hasn’t been drafted in legislative language, so it can’t be reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office to see how much it would cost and how many would lose insurance. 

And there’s good reason for that: Opposing the Affordable Care Act in the abstract is easy enough, but it becomes more challenging when you present a specific alternative, because such cheaper alternatives inevitably cover fewer people and make consumers pay more for benefits. This explains why the House, in passing its 56th attempt at some form of Obamacare repeal this week, included no specific alternative but rather a suggestion that committees get together and come up with some ideas.  (our emphasis)

Of course, this charade may be enough cover for the malicious Republican sociopaths on the Supreme Court to gut Obamacare in the utterly bogus King v. Burwell case to be decided later this year.  Which is all that this "new" plan - and anything else the Republicans might put forward on health care insurance - is about anyway.

Number Of Americans Struggling To Pay Medical Bills Down Sharply

You can file this under "It's all Obama's fault":

The number of Americans struggling to pay medical bills fell last year for the first time in nearly a decade -- the latest sign that Obamacare is making health care more affordable. 

Sixty-four million people, or approximately 35 percent of the U.S. population, said they had trouble paying bills or were stuck paying off medical debt in the past year, according to a new survey by the Commonwealth Fund released on Thursday. That was down from 75 million people, or 41 percent of the population, in 2012. This marks the first time that figure has fallen since 2005, when Commonwealth started keeping track.

So, for the first time instead of the problem of paying off medical debt getting worse, it's getting better. We wonder what happened after 2012 to cause this anomaly (not really).  Here's a chart showing the change:

(click on image to enlarge)

(Source:  Commonwealth Fund)

Monday Reading

Some good reads to start off the week:

Paul Krugman on "The Obama Recovery."

Joan Walsh on the NYPD and a New Yorker's history of white backlash.

Joan McCarter looks back on "The Year in Obamacare."

Steve Benen on John Ellis ("J.E.B.") Bush cutting his Obamacare ties.

Happy reading!

Wave Bye-Bye?

Eugene Robinson speculates why the 2014 midterm elections might not be shaping up to be the "wave election" many had predicted months ago:

The [Republican] candidates may be plausible, but they’re running on the wrong issues. Rather, the wrong issue: the Affordable Care Act. 

“Repeal Obamacare” remains a rallying cry for the GOP’s activist base — perhaps less for the law itself than the president for whom it is named. But for independent voters, undoing health-care reform is not the sure-fire issue Republicans hoped it would be. 

The program is in effect. Some people who previously could not obtain health insurance now have it. Most people are unaffected. Despite all the dire GOP predictions, the sky has not fallen. 

Yet Republican candidates say otherwise, describing a dystopian breakdown of the nation’s health-care system that simply has not occurred. And they go all tongue-tied when asked how they could manage to repeal Obamacare in the face of a certain veto by Obama — or, more tellingly, just what they would put in place if they somehow succeeded.

But forget wave, or even ripple, election.  Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium sees a much different outcome at this time:

Long-term forecasting is based on methods that worked nearly perfectly in 2010-2012. We will soon install code to display the long-term forecast, which is also based purely on polls. Currently, the long-term forecast for Democratic control on Election Day is 65%, about 2-1 odds in favor.

Now, the usual caveats apply (i.e., "It's two months until the election!!"), and Wang is swimming against the tide of conventional wisdom and most, if not all, of the polling community.  Not to mention Wang is putting his probabilities in the realm of a "work in progress."  But, given that he was dead on in earlier projections (we recall him picking all of the 2012 Senate winners and nailing the Presidential results), one would be stupid to dismiss his analysis even at this relatively early stage in the midterm election cycle.

The Price That's Paid For Believing Lies

From yesterday's once great Washington Post Bezos Bugle comes a story of how the Republican scare machine - with Fox "News" and hate radio as its biggest megaphones - has done its job with low-information folks who would benefit enormously from more affordable health care:

Carolyn Underwood remembers her dad coming home covered in black coal dust from the mines. “Momma would have his water ready. He’d wash his face and she would wash his neck,” she said. 

In old age, he suffered from black lung disease and wore an oxygen supply constantly. But unlike his daughter, he never worried about how he would pay his medical bills. The union took care of it. 

That doesn’t make Carolyn Underwood, 63, a supporter of expanded government health coverage, even though she would benefit from it. In a region where the decline of the coal industry has sent poverty and health-care needs soaring, another force has grown at least by equal measures: antipathy to President Obama and the Affordable Care Act (ACA). 

“I am scared of Obamacare,” Underwood said. “We’ve been hearing too many tales about it. We heard there’s doctors who get to decide . . . ” Before she could put her finger on the term “death panels,” her sister Nancy Taylor, 62, made a gun gesture with her hand and said, “Pow!”  (our emphasis)

Union family.  Appalachia.  Low-income.  And they're "scared of Obamacare."  People for whom government social safety nets were designed in order to make their lives less awful, shunning the help that's there for the taking.  "Death panels," our asses.  "Tales" is the right word, Ms. Underwood. Heckuva job, Republicans!

Lowest Uninsured Rate Since 2008 -- Thanks, Obama

(click to enlarge)

Here's the Gallup poll information.

BONUS:  Here's more on why it's game over for Republicans on Obamacare.