Looking for the Blue...Er...Silver Lining

In his election predictions, Kos has 26 of the so-called "Blue Dog Democrats" (read "conservaDems") losing their House seats today. I would call that the silver lining in the potential dark cloud of Democratic prospects today. Losing those Rethug-lite congressmen can only be an improvement to the Democratic caucus. We're especially rooting for Rep. Gene Taylor (Rethug lite-MS) to go down (he's the one who recently admitted he voted for Walnuts McCain over Obama in 2008). If you can't pull the lever for the nominee of your party, who's representing the policy goals in the party's platform, you shouldn't be in that party, much less representing that party in office. We're hoping the voters take care of that problem for as many Blue Dogs as possible.

It All Depends on Who Shows Up Tuesday (Duh)

Another pre-postmortem of possible results on Election Day comes via Steve Benen who helpfully compares polls of "registered" voters versus "likely" voters. Since most if not all pundits are using the "likely" voters model, the predictions have been dire for Dems. But if those "registered" voters got off their asses and showed up on Tuesday, the results would be quite different. Ah, repose on Tuesday, repent for the next two years.

Early Postmortem

Granted, we won't know the extent of Democratic losses until after next Tuesday, but whether it's along the lines of historical midterm losses (25-35 seats) or a Rethuglican tsunami (50+), or something in between, Eric Alterman has what we think is a reasonable analysis of a main reason why it's come to this point (spoiler: his name might be Rahmbo).

As far as what to expect from a Rethug-majority House, Paul Krugman (linked by Steve Benen) has the dire forecast.

VOTE!

Rethugs: We Don't Need No Stinkin' Compromising!

This should surprise no one who's been paying even the slightest attention the past two years: should Rethugs retake the House, don't expect any "bipartisanship"! What we can expect, with more Rethugs likely heading to Washington, is amped up extremism, obstructionism and partisanship. I wonder if that's what the voters who are casting their ballots in just over a week are looking for.

UPDATE: As if further proof would be needed, here's what Missy McConnell has to say.

Sunday Morning Reading

We have two items for your consideration this fine fall Sunday that point out, yet again, what's at stake in the midterm elections:

-- Via Steve Benen, we get a peek at one Jesse Kelly, a Rethug wingnut running for Congress in Arizona's 8th district. Kelly has some "interesting" views on the government's role in ensuring food safety (not to spoil the read, but he's one who safely falls under the category of "E. coli conservative"). Apparently, this crackpot has a good chance of winning.

-- Gail Collins has a piece in the NY Times on Wisconsin's Sen. Russ Feingold, who's doing battle against yet another Randian Rethug millionaire, Ron "Tiny" Johnson. The strong possibility that Feingold, a man of principle and integrity, could lose to someone like Tiny reminds us of Steve Benen's line in the above blog: "I can only assume the vast majority of the country has no idea what they're about to elect."

(P.S. - Speaking of Wisconsin, Wisconsin 31, Iowa 30)

Giving Democrats Credit -- And Taking It

The Kaplan Daily's David Ignatius has an op/ed on the lack of credit being given - and taken - over the TARP and auto company rescues of the past 2 years. We like his opening:

"Constant repetition of anti-government rhetoric in our political echo chamber has dulled Americans into overlooking an important and perhaps surprising fact: We have just lived through one of the more notable successes of government intervention in modern times - the auto and bank rescues that almost surely saved the country from another Great Depression."

He goes on to say that Obama and Democrats should stop apologizing and running away from this success story. That, however, would require more political savvy and larger sacs than many Democrats seem to possess around election time. Pity.

Stats of the Month

It's less than two months until the midterm elections. Let's play a game called "Where's the disconnect?" Check out these numbers from a new Kaplan Daily-Kaiser-Harvard poll (via the Kaplan Daily) and see if you can spot the disconnect:

57% of independents say the federal government has the wrong priorities.

53% of independents say the federal government hasn't really helped their families.

71% of independents say someone in their family has received unemployment benefits, mortgage interest credit, or Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security payments in the last two years.

These are independents, mind you, not the typical Rethug wingnut "moran." We're doomed.

(Image: the M-16 is a nice touch)

Time to Dog the Rethuglicans

Yesterday, Think Progress published an investigative piece that exposed the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's funneling of foreign corporate contributions into campaign ads supporting Rethuglicans here in the U.S. Remember that the "U.S." Chamber fought hard against a Dem proposal to repeal tax incentives for businesses shipping jobs overseas; now we see the fuller picture.

The Rethugs, thanks to outfits like the "U.S." Chamber of Commerce, are rolling in contributions from corporate tycoons and the wealthy, who like things the way they were. Going into the final weeks of the election campaign, the Rethugs are outspending Dems by a margin of 6 to 1. In an interview with the Huffington Post, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi pushed back, saying that the Rethuglican love for big donors will end up boomeranging, once the public gets the message:

"If Democrats can't match them in spending, said Pelosi, the party would tar Republicans by connecting them to corporate cash. 'Of course, they all have euphemistic terms, 'For Seniors' or 'For Prosperity,' or whatever it is, but really it's just cover,' she said.

'Whenever you get hit with an overwhelming weight, you have to jujitsu it. So we want to turn it against them... I want to tattoo them right on to the Republican candidate,' she said, smacking her hand for emphasis. 'Big oil, big banks, big health insurance: We're going to tattoo you with that, so it's like doggy-doo stuck on your shoe. Wherever you go, people will know.'"

Yes, and recognize the odor.

(photo: No one can say the Rethugs haven't been hard at work at something -- click on picture to enlarge if you dare)

Consequences

"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity." W.B. Yeats

That seems to be the meme so far for this election cycle. We'll wait until all the votes are counted in November to see whether or not enough Democratic "unexcited" votes can match or overcome the Rethug "excited" votes (an unexcited vote counts the same as an excited one, after all). In the meantime, reading the posting about the Orange Boner below reminds us of one of the consequences of a Rethug takeover. Here are, summarized, a few more:

Rewarding bad policy decisions past and future: In a case of mass amnesia, voters would be rewarding the party that "drove us into the ditch" a short two years ago. The Rethugs haven't learned a thing from the market collapse two years ago; if anything, they've painted themselves into a more extremist corner by taking up the outlandish positions held by the tea baggers and Club for Growth crowd: cut taxes for the rich, starve government, repeal health and financial reform. So, to summarize: the more dangerous and destructive our actions and ideas, the more you want to support us. Hmmm.

Rewarding bad behavior: Even occasional readers of this blog don't need to be reminded of the Rethugs' bad behavior over the past 18 months. The hate, innuendo, and fearmongering at both the level of Rethug officeholders (Bachmann, DeMint, McConnell, Boner, et al) and their surrogates (the teahadist nation, Fux "News" Nutwork, hate radio, etc.) has reached unprecedented levels from our 40-plus years perspective in political observation. Voters would be rewarding and asking for more obstruction, deceit, reactionary retrenchment, and unfettered access to pols via massive plutocrat and corporate campaign donations (thank you, John Roberts' court!). Again, hmmm.

Stopping reform dead in its tracks: Notwithstanding progressive angst about the flaws in the health care and financial reforms, and the efficacy of the stimulus, voters would be sending the message that they want these reforms rolled back or repealed, and don't subscribe to the notion that government has a role to play in stopping the economy from going off a cliff. That's a recipe for disaster the next time the economy implodes and, more immediately, for those who are just now starting to benefit from health reform.

And if you need any more reasons to fear these consequences, let these names ignite whatever passionate intensity you may be lacking: (Senator) Rand Paul, (Senator) Christine O'Donnell, (Senator) Sharron Angle, (Senator) Joe Miller, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Jim DeMint, (Speaker) John Boehner, (Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell, (Chairman) Joe Barton, Eric Cantor, Dick Armey, Karl Rove, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck...Enough?

Rallying Dems

Yesterday afternoon's rally for President Obama at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (ahem, our alma mater) drew over 26,000 enthusiastic supporters. Speaking at the campus' Library Mall, the President reminded the students, faculty and residents "now is not the time to give up." He continued, "the biggest mistake we can make right now is to let disappointment lead to apathy." His remarks were also broadcast to 200 other colleges and universities.

Other signs of a reemerging Dem surge were noted in a poll of likely voters in Maryland, where Dem Gov. Martin O'Malley is being challenged by former Rethug Gov. Bob "Beatle Bob" Ehrlich, who was "fired" by the voters in the last election, and who has been employed since then as a corporate lobbyist (surprise!). Last month the race was neck-and-neck, but in the most recent poll, O'Malley has jumped to an 11 point lead over Beatle Bob.

Dems seem to be waking up to the fact that Rethug / New Confederate Party rule by the likes of Sen. Jim "Demented" DeMint and the Orange Boner would be a disaster for America. The more radical the Rethug message becomes -- thanks to the teatard influence -- the more Dems, and moderate independents will be motivated to get out and vote.

(photo: M. DeVries, Capital Times)

Sunday Morning Reading

There are two worthwhile articles in the Kaplan Daily this morning: "Learn to Bridge the Class Divide," by Joan C. Williams, and "Stop Worrying About the CEOs," by Paul Pierson and Jacob Hacker (we like that name!). Williams discusses how the Dems should be recapturing "the message" that it's the Democrats who are the ones looking out for the working class, not the plutocrat Rethugs. Pierson and Hacker (ly!) posit that the whining from Wall Street should free Obama (especially should conservaDems be the most prominent victims of voter anger in the midterms) to be a more progressive populist when the next Congress comes in.

Health Reform, the "Pledge," and Political Malpractice

Today, six months after passage of the health reform bill, several key provisions take effect, including no lifetime limits on benefits, sick/costly customers can't be dropped for "technical" mistakes, and children can't be excluded from coverage because of pre-existing conditions. Not bad...for a start.

Meanwhile, in the alternate reality known as Rethuglican politics, Congressional Rethugs issued their lobbyist-written "Pledge to America" today, which was, as expected, the usual right-wing dogma not even warmed over: smaller government, cut non-defense spending, ban abortions, repeal health reform, etc. Oh, and keep those big tax cuts for the wealthy! It's Lemon Pledge*!

And the Dems? Are they ready to do battle over Obama's proposed extension of middle- class- only tax cuts? Are you shitting us? They would need to have a central nervous system (brain and spine) to do that!

* H/t to "Countdown."

Fruitcakes and Political Fantasy

Worth reading today is Steven Pearlstein's article in the Kaplan Daily, wherein he cautions deluded Rethuglicans not to imagine that because their prospects look good in November it follows that the Rethuglican party "can claim vindication for every nutty notion spouted by its leaders," like how Keynesian economics was proven wrong in the recent/ continuing unpleasantness. He also asks how the

"...beleaguered private sector has responded to this unwarranted and unconstitutional government takeover of the economy? Profits are booming, and publicly traded share prices are up 70 percent!"

Since many of these folks are cut from the same sociopathic cloth, Perlstein is right in saying there's no pleasing them, whether its Sen. Jim "Demented" DeMint (Crackpot-SC) or Wall Street hedge fund manager Anthony "Scaramouche" Scaramucci, who whined at the recent CNBC town hall with Obama that he and his hedge fund masters of the universe were tired of being Obama's whipping boy (the Obama response, which generated the town hall's biggest applause: large portions of the public think I haven't been tough enough!).

Playing Post Office

Much of the frustration among progressives is over the weak spines and lack of conviction that Congressional Dems have. While Rethugs are on the offensive with literally nothing to offer in terms of solutions that differ from the policies that got us in the trouble we're in, Dems are running for cover. Instead of touting the benefits of, for example, health insurance reform (no more pre-existing condition games or losing coverage after losing your job), Dems are defensive. Their leadership in Congress is less than stellar, with tired old Harry Reid leading the Senate Dems and low caliber, ineffective Steny Hoyer leading the House Dems. This exchange, reported in the Kaplan Daily today, tells you all you need to know about why the Dems are in danger of losing big in November:

"Your schedule," Linda Scott of PBS remarked to Hoyer at Tuesday morning's meeting, "looks pretty light." She asked whether Democrats are "telling you they need to be back home, rather than naming post offices?"

"We always name post offices," Hoyer replied with irritation. "It's a worthwhile endeavor to do that, and people really do appreciate it, particularly when it's their name and their community."

The Democrats are unable to rally themselves around tax cuts for millions of Americans, and their leader is defending . . . postal namings."

That would be funny if it weren't a symbol of what is wrong with Dem leaders who enjoy the largest majority in years. The economy is turning around slowly, the Dems should have the Rethugs where they want them on tax cuts for the rich, the Rethugs are flailing with extreme candidates, and yet it's the Dems that are nervous.

The Rethug "Vision": Gridlock

One increasingly influential Rethuglican radical, South Carolina's Sen. Jim "Demented" DeMint, can at least be given credit for not hiding his extremism, as other Rethugs do. Going against his own party's campaign committee, Demented supported Tea Farty candidates Joe "Bounty Man" Miller in Alaska and Christine "No Dildos" O'Donnell in Delaware. Now, Demented has revealed what's in store if the Rethugs take over control of Congress: gridlock. Saying that "businesses" have been telling (ordering?) him that the Rethugs should basically shut down the legislative branch if given control, Demented told Bloomberg News, "At least gridlock is predictable."

You'll remember that Demented became infamous for declaring, “If we’re able to stop Obama on this [health reform], it will be his Waterloo. It will break him.” No concern about the uninsured, no concern about rising health care costs or people dropped from coverage due to preexisting conditions. Just a political hack's calculation about what it would take to win politically. This guy is the great hope of the Rethuglican / New Confederate Party: gridlock, give the power back to the corporate giants, continue policies that create huge gaps between the middle class and the economic elites.

(photo: Demented's not clowning around)

Sunday Morning With Frank Rich

Our Sunday pal, Frank Rich, on Obama, the middle class, special interests, and getting his FDR groove on.

A Poll That Won't Be Reported

The flurry of polls over the past two weeks showing Rethugs gaining the advantage over Dems in the 2010 mid-term election got a lot of play by the "mainstream media." It reinforced the meme they've been flogging hard and just can't get enough of: Disaster for Democrats!

Well, maybe not. Gallup has a new generic ballot poll showing the parties dead even at 46% each. Still not the best news for Dems, but then again, we're 8 weeks out from the election, people! We thought we'd share this information with our faithful readers since you won't see it mentioned on the teevee or in the Kaplan Daily. In those venues, it's still Dewey Beats Truman... I mean, Disaster for Democrats!

UPDATE: E.J. Dionne also notes the strange silence of the press about the Dem-friendly poll: runs counter to their story line.

(Image: The media goes to extreme lengths to analyze polling data.)

Election Primer

We're just getting around to this interesting 2010 election outlook by Al Giordano. What would the media narrative be should the Dems end up holding both the House and Senate, against the current herd "reporting" meme of an imminent Democratic debacle? (Hint: something along the lines of "It's still bad news for Democrats!")

Before John "The Orange" Boehner starts measuring the windows in the Speaker's office, he might want to read Giordano's analysis (then again, let Boner ride his clueless hubris for the duration). In the final analysis, it would be amusing if the "Young Guns" are actually packin' ... pop guns.

Time To Fight Back

Or perhaps well past time. The latest Gallup Poll shows a Rethug lead of 51 to 41 percent over Dems for the mid-term elections. Rethugs have led Dems for five consecutive weeks, and the enthusiasm gap is even worse (50 to 25). Digby has the right idea for closing the enthusiasm gap for Dem politicians: pick some fights and show your base you believe in something other than self-preservation.

Another idea: keep reminding voters that the Rethugs caused the economic meltdown, and have no new ideas to get us out of the mess they created. Voters have a notoriously short-term memory, but to reward the Rethugs for creating the mess, and obstructing every action to get us out would be a sad commentary on the Dems' ineptness.

"Witchhunt Season"

As the midterm elections approach, the prospect of a Rethug takeover of the House is becoming more and more a possibility. Paul Krugman tells us what to expect if that happens, and wonders why Obama isn't doing everything he can to avert that catastrophe.